Total U.S. soybean exports could fall by 40 percent if China imposes a 30 percent tariff in retaliation for U.S. tariffs, a new study from Purdue University agricultural economists says. The study, which was paid for by the U.S. Soybean Export Council, estimates that a tariff of that size would cut Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans by 71 percent. More than 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports go to China. The economists also modeled the effect of a 10 percent tariff. In that case, total U.S. exports could fall by 18 percent, they estimated. Congress members from farm states have been anxious about China imposing retaliatory tariffs against soybeans, seen as a likely target, in response to Section 301 tariffs on China announced March 22 (see 1803220034).
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative highlighted a handful of gains for U.S. exports in Japan, South Korea, Africa and South America while also highlighting irritants with China, India and Vietnam, in its annual National Trade Estimate Report. Aside from the lowering of trade barriers achieved in the rewritten U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), USTR noted that in January 2018, Japan recognized U.S. automobile safety standards for front and rear crashes, "thereby reducing the cost and burden for U.S. auto exporters." It also praised some anti-piracy actions in Peru and counterfeit seizures in Argentina. On the barriers side, the report again laid out the case against China that the Section 301 technology transfer enforcement action is based on. It also complained that India's price controls on knee implants and coronary stents, along with a refusal to allow U.S. companies to withdraw some products from the market, forces the U.S. to sell some products at a loss. "India has indicated it may apply similar price controls on additional medical devices."
An additional two presidential proclamations related to Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and steel were published March 28 in the Federal Register. One new detail was released on how companies can make arguments that the steel or aluminum they import should be excluded from tariffs. The proclamation said the commerce secretary can take "into account the regional availability of particular articles, the ability to transport articles within the United States, and any other factors as the Secretary deems appropriate."
Panelists at the Center for Strategic and International Studies agreed that the process to determine whether imports violate domestic companies' intellectual property works well, but said once an exclusion order is issued by the International Trade Commission, enforcement can be tricky.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer filed a request for consultations at the World Trade Organization to “address China’s discriminatory technology licensing requirements,” his office said in a March 23 news release. President Donald Trump’s memorandum proposing Section 301 tariffs on about $60 billion worth of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. directed Lighthizer to address “China’s discriminatory technology licensing practices” through a WTO dispute proceeding (see 1803220034), of which the consultations request was the first step, Lighthizer's office said.
The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by Toys 'R' Us could reduce new orders of toys in the near future, said Steve Pasierb, president of The Toy Association, in a letter. "In addition to the direct negative impact on some companies, the flood of liquidation product from [Toys 'R' Us] can likely weaken sales at both mass and specialty retailers," he said. "Likewise, there will be a short-term negative influence on orders coming into our manufacturing members, at least until the ramp-up happens to stock for the 2018 holiday season." The toy industry is now "at an inflection point," he said.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, speaking at a conference hosted by free-trade interest groups, said Congress will assert itself when it's time to renew fast-track trade negotiating authority in July -- and that no changes to NAFTA can take effect unless Congress signs off. "Because the Constitution very clearly assigns to Congress the power to lay and collect tariffs and to regulate foreign commerce, Congress must have the final word on the fate of NAFTA," he said March 20, according to prepared remarks. "Congress will use the extension disapproval process under the Trade Promotion Authority law to emphasize that the administration must adhere to the TPA negotiating objectives and to encourage the president to seek new agreements with our trading partners."
Wal-Mart, Macy's, Target and 23 other retailers and apparel brands sent a letter March 19 to the White House asking that broadly applied tariffs not be part of the Section 301 solution to Chinese intellectual property theft and investment restrictions. "Families shopping in our stores pay higher prices because America already levies import taxes as much as 32 and 67 percent on basic clothes and shoes," the companies said in the letter. "Applying any additional broad-based tariff as part of a Section 301 action would worsen this inequity and punish American working families with higher prices on household basics like clothing, shoes, electronics, and home goods.... As you continue to investigate harmful technology and intellectual property practices, we ask that any remedy carefully consider the impact on consumer prices."
International Trade Today is providing readers with some of the top stories for March 12-16 in case they were missed.
Tariffs are a tax on consumers, and not the right way to address China's industrial policies and unfair trade practices, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce says. U.S. Chamber CEO Thomas Donohue said March 15 that sweeping tariffs against China "could lead to a destructive trade war with serious consequences for U.S. economic growth and job creation. The livelihood of America’s consumers, businesses, farmers, and ranchers are at risk if the administration proceeds with this plan." Administration officials say the Section 301 technology transfer and intellectual property investigation response will be released in the coming weeks.