With the announcement of a phase one deal, Flexport chief economist Phil Levy said the promise is for stability in tariff levels -- even if the large majority of goods facing Section 301 tariffs will retain the 25 percent hike. But, he noted in a Dec. 16 webinar, many times over the last eight months, “a deal was announced, and it didn't last. That should sort of serve as a precautionary tale.” Levy, like many observers, doesn't believe that a phase two deal, that could lead to rolling back more tariffs, is likely in the next year.
The phase one trade deal (see 1912130035) between the U.S. and China has reduced Chinese “market uncertainty” and the two sides should cancel the remaining tariffs, a spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics said during a Dec. 16 press conference. “It has strengthened market confidence and promoted economic and trade development, both for China and the United States, and for the world,” Fu Linghui said, according to an unofficial translation. “[It is] positive.” He also said the countries are continuing negotiations and should cancel “the levy of tariffs in stages, contributing more power to world economic growth.”
House Democrats and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative say that the new NAFTA can serve as a template for future trade deals, but experts question how that might come to pass, and a key Republican wants at least one Republican priority restored in future deals.
President Donald Trump tweeted Dec. 12 that U.S. and China negotiators are “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” However, Trump has said before that the two sides were very close -- including two months ago -- and nothing came of it. Numerous media outlets reported Dec. 12 that administration officials said an agreement in principle has been reached between China and the U.S., but no announcement had been made by press time. Several media outlets reported that the U.S. was willing to cancel tariffs set to take effect Dec. 15 and cut existing Section 301 tariffs by half, and an adviser to the president said Trump would cut tariffs, but did not say by how much. An announcement is expected on Dec. 13.
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said he doesn't expect the Dec. 15 round of tariffs on consumer goods from China to go into effect then, according to Bloomberg News.“I do not believe those will be implemented and I think we may see some backing away,” Purdue said at a conference in Indianapolis on Dec. 9.
A last-minute push to tighten up the steel and aluminum segment of the auto rules of origin has angered Mexico, media reports said Dec. 6. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, had referred to this last-minute ask as not coming from House Democrats the day before (see 1912050054). The reports say that steel unions asked for a “poured and melted” standard, rather than allowing Mexican processors to take imported slab and make it into sheet metal for cars.
Texas voters send 36 members to the House of Representatives, and 18 attended a press conference Dec. 5 to say they want a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement vote as soon as possible. But only one of the 13 Democrats in the Texas delegation attended -- Rep. Henry Cuellar, who represents Laredo and McAllen. Cuellar, the biggest booster of the new NAFTA in the Democratic caucus, said he'd been updated about the state of play between Mexicans and the U.S. trade representative at 9:30 a.m. that day, and “we're very, very, very close,” he said, but he said Mexicans tire of what they feel is a “one-more-thing”-style of negotiating from the Americans.
Japan’s Diet approved the country’s trade deal with the U.S., Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a Dec. 3 notice, according to an unofficial translation. The deal passed in Japan’s upper house after being approved by Japan’s lower house on Nov. 19 (see 1911190045), and sets up a Jan. 1, 2020, effective date. The deal, signed by the two countries in October, will eliminate nearly 250 tariff lines of Japanese imports into the U.S. and will lower Japanese tariffs on hundreds of U.S. exports, including food and agricultural goods (see 1910070074)
Democrats in the House insisted that their ideas about how to verify compliance with Mexico's labor laws is a balanced one that respects their sovereignty. Chief Mexican negotiator on USMCA, Jesus Seade, wrote a column published Dec. 4 that said, in Spanish, that there will be no “transnational inspectors,” even though the U.S. has pushed so much for that approach. "If the U.S. stops insisting on the pair of unacceptable ideas that the [Mexican trade group CCE] statement yesterday speaks of, we can soon have a treaty, and a very good treaty," he wrote (see 1912030033). He said that the state-to-state dispute settlement system, broken in NAFTA, "will now be 100% repaired, for all topics and sectors under the treaty."
Exactly how the U.S. Trade Representative has agreed to change the 10-year biologics exclusivity period in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is unclear, but insiders are saying it will be less favorable to the pharmaceutical industry.