The U.S. sanctions bill against Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline may not have the chilling effect that lawmakers expect, trade experts said. The U.S. should introduce export controls to bolster the sanctions, the experts said, but those restrictions may be too late because the Russia-Germany pipeline is nearing completion. The bill also may disproportionately sanction German businesses involved in the project instead of the real target, they said, which is Russia.

The power of U.S. sanctions has been “severely weakened” by the Trump administration's failure to follow through on lifting designations and is hampered by a lack of transparency, according to a Dec. 16 report from the Center for a New American Security. The administration can take several steps to maximize the effectiveness of its sanctions regimes, the report said, which will also indirectly “limit the unintentional escalation of international competition.”

The U.S. pork industry expects phase one of the U.S.-China trade deal to be a boon to pork exporters, although the industry has not been told exactly how much they will benefit, the National Pork Producers Council said. “The administration hasn't been sharing the details,” Nick Giordano, the NPPC’s vice president of global government affairs, said during a Dec. 18 call with reporters. “But our understanding is that it’s going to be very good for us.”

Export Compliance Daily is providing readers with some of the top stories for Dec. 9-13 in case you missed them.

The House Ways and Means Committee, with near-unanimity, recommended the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement go to the floor. A vote on the replacement for NAFTA is expected on Dec. 19. For about three hours, Democrats and Republicans praised the rewrite of North America's free trade pact, though many Republicans complained that it took a year to get the opportunity to vote for it.

The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is expected to increase enforcement of its 50 percent rule, placing more of a burden on companies to determine whether they are indirectly dealing with a sanctioned party, said Joshua Shrager, a former Treasury official and a senior specialist with Kharon, a sanctions advisory firm. While the 50 percent rule -- which bans transactions with a company owned 50 percent or more by a sanctioned party -- is growing increasingly complicated due to a rise in U.S. sanctions, OFAC’s compliance expectations are rising too, Shrager said.

Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., for a second time announced he will block the Trump administration’s efforts to transfer export controls of firearms from the State Department to the Commerce Department, according to a Dec. 13 press release. In a Dec. 10 letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Menendez said the military items should not be removed from the State Department’s U.S. Munitions List and should instead be subject to “more rigorous controls” and oversight. The senator previously announced a hold on the transfer in February (see 1903060021).

The Commerce Department plans to release its first set of proposed controls on emerging technologies in six areas, including the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors, a top Commerce official said. The six proposed rules (see 1912130055), which may not be released until early next year, include restrictions on items in the fields of quantum technology, semiconductor design, chemicals, biotechnology, artificial intelligence and possibly 3D printing, said Matt Borman, Commerce’s deputy assistant secretary for export administration. The controls stem from an advance notice of proposed rulemaking published more than a year ago.

BOSTON -- If the Commerce Department follows through on plans to expand the limits of the Export Administration Regulations to further control foreign shipments to Huawei, it will have a “dramatic” impact on international supply chains, said Kevin Wolf, a trade lawyer with Akin Gump and Commerce’s former assistant secretary for export administration. The measures, which Commerce confirmed it was considering earlier this month (see 1912100033), include expanding the Direct Product Rule and broadening the de minimis rule to make more foreign-made goods subject to the EAR.

With the last round of consumer goods imported from China spared, and a reduction in Section 301 tariffs on about $120 billion in goods that were first subject to additional tariffs Sept. 1, some business interests welcomed the de-escalation, but warned that the U.S. should stay focused on more significant economic reforms in China. The tariffs on List 4a, which are at 15 percent and apply to about 3,800 8-digit tariff lines, will go to 7.5 percent.