While the Chinese have not levied tariffs on U.S. aircraft, the top manufactured good China imports from the U.S., that could change if President Donald Trump follows through on his May 5 threat to hike 10 percent tariffs to 25 percent, one expert believes. Edward Alden, a trade expert and professor at Western Washington University, said that the Chinese have been seriously negotiating for five months, and if the U.S. walks away, they will hunker down for a long, protracted trade war. They could levy tariffs on airplanes, increase customs hassles for those U.S. firms exporting goods to China and create geopolitical trouble for the U.S.

The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control’s recent publication of a sanctions compliance guide is the latest example of OFAC’s long-term effort to show companies what makes an effective compliance program, trade lawyers said. But the effort may also ultimately benefit the Treasury, according to one lawyer, by making it easier for the department to successfully prosecute compliance cases.

The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control reached a settlement of about $870,000 with a New York-based shipbroking company that OFAC said violated weapons-related sanctions five times. The company, MID-SHIP Group LLC, violated the Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators Sanctions Regulations by negotiating contracts among ship owners and charterers worth about $470,000 between February and November 2011, OFAC said May 2. The ships used in the transfers were owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), which was sanctioned by OFAC in 2008.

The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control published a 12-page guide on sanctions compliance for U.S. and foreign businesses, detailing what OFAC defines as effective compliance programs and outlining several “root causes” of sanctions violations. The guide, published May 2, delves into the level of compliance that OFAC expects from companies and how best to avoid sanctions violations. The guide covers five categories: management commitment, risk assessment, internal controls, testing and auditing, and training.

Reps. Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., and Michael McCaul, R-Texas, are working on legislation that would strengthen U.S.-imposed sanctions on Russia, they said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee meeting May 1. Engel said they are planning to introduce a bill that will “protect America’s interests, ramp up the targeted sanctions, enhance diplomacy and counter propaganda efforts to meet the Russian threat.” McCaul said he and Engel had breakfast with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier that day and said “there’s no doubt” Pompeo “looks at Russia as a great threat” to the U.S. “I don't think this is a partisan issue,” McCaul said. “I hope we can pass legislation out of this committee.”

U.S. economic sanctions are on a path toward losing power and impact, potentially undercutting a variety of tools used in U.S. foreign policy, according to a study published April 29 by the Center for a New American Security. The study, “Economic Dominance, Financial Technology, and the Future of U.S. Economic Coercion,” examines the current state of U.S. economic sanctions and makes several predictions, portraying a muddy outlook for the future of U.S. sanctioning tools. “If policymakers want to be able to continue deploying coercive economic tools effectively … they must ... get ahead of trends that could, if left unchecked, weaken some of the most important tools of U.S. foreign policy,” the study said.

Jacob Lew, a former chief of staff and Treasury secretary under President Barack Obama, called the Trump administration's approach to trade and sanctions “troubling,” saying the administration is placing unneeded stress on U.S. allies and damaging the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy. Speaking April 30 at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think-tank focused on national security, Lew was critical of Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, was skeptical of the president’s “brute force” approach to trade deals and pointed to “worrisome trends” that he said will lead to U.S. undermining its own sanctions. Among those trends, Lew said, are “ambiguous diplomatic objectives, growing unpredictability, increased unilateral action” and a “narrow focus on isolated policies with less regard for the broader context.”

Export Compliance Daily is providing readers with some of the top stories for April 22-26 in case they were missed.

Canada will enact final safeguards on two categories of steel and begin consultations on the five categories that the Canadian International Trade Tribunal didn't recommend for safeguard tariffs (see 1904040051), the Department of Finance Canada said in an April 26 news release. The 30-day consultation with industry and workers will help "determine what further protections are required," it said. The CITT said the safeguards were deserved for imports of heavy plate and stainless steel wire.

The Aerospace Industries Association asked the Commerce Department for more time before it sets space-related export control regulations, in order to allow for its member companies to have "open discussions with the government," in comments filed in a Bureau of Industry and Security proposed rulemaking regarding the Commerce Control List for munitions. The trade group said it lacked an "industry consensus" on multiple changes being considered. The comments were solicited by State and Commerce after both requested public comments on a proposal for items listed on the U.S. Munitions List in categories IV and XV: launch vehicles and spacecraft. The proposal is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to revive the National Space Council and review space-related export controls (see 1904180014). Comments were due April 22