In his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump touted a “groundbreaking new agreement with China” without alluding to the work yet to get done in phase two, and said replacing NAFTA was a promise he kept. “Unfair trade is perhaps the single biggest reason that I decided to run for President,” he said, according to a White House transcript. “Six days ago, I replaced NAFTA and signed the brand-new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement into law.” Trump “also promised our citizens that I would impose tariffs to confront China's massive theft of America’s jobs,” he said. “Our strategy has worked. Days ago, we signed the groundbreaking new agreement with China that will defend our workers, protect our intellectual property, bring billions and billions of dollars into our treasury, and open vast new markets for products made and grown right here in the USA.”
Experts disagreed on whether the spread of the coronavirus will make it impossible for China to reach its purchase commitments, or make it more likely that China will wish to please the U.S., as its economy suffers. But one thing most agreed on -- the disease's impact is another reminder, after the tariff war, that companies should diversify instead of being wholly reliant on Chinese factories. The experts were on a panel at the Washington International Trade Association conference Feb. 4 on the future of U.S.-China trade.
Indonesia has given its customs officials the authority to stop counterfeit goods at the border, and just in 2020, has already seized $1 billion rupiah, or $73,000, worth of counterfeits that were set for export, according to Iwan Freddy Hari Susanto, charge d'affaires for the Indonesian Embassy. He was testifying Jan. 31 at a hearing on Indonesia's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences benefits program, and was describing numerous actions the country has taken to improve protections for intellectual property rights holders.
Eliminating Thailand's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences program, because of a complaint from pork producers, would hurt U.S. importers more than Thai businesses, one witness said, and would be unlikely to convince the country to allow pigs fed with ractopamine to be imported. China and the European Union also ban meat that was fed the growth-enhancing drug. Dan Anthony, testifying on behalf of the GSP Action Committee, told the panel of government officials that they should put great weight on the potential harm to U.S. importers as they make their decision. He gave the example of a 25-person company that imports from Thailand, and had to pay $60,000 to $70,000 a month in tariffs during the two years GSP was not in force. Once it was renewed, the North Carolina company hired 17 full-time employees, and today, employs 70 people.
President Donald Trump, in a signing ceremony Jan. 29, said he would be ending the devastation that NAFTA brought and said that its replacement will strengthen what he called the country's blue-collar boom, “delivering massive gains for the loyal citizens of our nation.” Democrats, who were not invited to the White House ceremony, during their own press conferences ahead of the signing, emphasized how much they'd changed what the president submitted to them, by strengthening labor enforcement and environmental provisions, and removing patent protections for certain kinds of prescription drugs.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, as he talked about attending the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signing ceremony, acknowledged that there are a number of steps before the NAFTA replacement can come into force. He said on a Jan. 28 phone call with reporters that he thinks Canada will ratify “probably within the next 30 days,” but then all parties will have to show how they “will be able to carry out their USMCA obligations so that this can enter into force.” Here at home, uniform regulations for the new rules of origin have to be promulgated before the U.S. can certify it's ready for USMCA. Still, Grassley said, Trump will be running his re-election campaign on replacing NAFTA. “I'm glad he can say that, and I'm willing to say it for him, too,” he said. “He likes to brag, and this is legitimately something to brag about.”
The U.S. effort to box out Huawei shows how complex and intertwined the issues are, the Asia Society Policy Institute president and a former deputy secretary of state said Jan. 28. Former Australia prime minister Kevin Rudd, now president of ASPI, said he's spoken with many people in the U.S. semiconductor industry, and they tell him that their ability to reinvest at the scale they need to remain dominant in the latest advances “hangs in part on their ability to export to China.” He asked, if the government bans those exports, will it “then step in to supplement on the order of tens of billions each year?”
The members of the Maine delegation -- Sens. Susan Collins, a Republican, and Angus King, an Independent; and Democratic House members Chellie Pingree and Jared Golden -- sent a letter to the U.S. trade representative asking that he reveal the dollar value of China's purchase promises for U.S. lobster. Lobster sales to China fell after retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent on the shellfish in response to the first round of Section 301 tariffs.
Despite resumed talk about tariffs on European autos, U.S. Chamber of Commerce officials say they are heartened by the first signs of progress in months for trade talks between the European Union and the United States. Marjorie Chorlins, the Chamber's senior vice president of European affairs, said with a new team at the European Commission, and the positive comments after the meeting in Davos, Switzerland, between President Donald Trump and EC President Ursula von der Leyen, the business community is feeling new hope for an improvement in relations. The officials spoke during a Jan. 24 conference call.
Not only are the purchase requirements in the new China trade deal unrealistic, other developments in China's economy and the trading relationship make them even further out of reach, according to an analysis by economist Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Bown notes that the rate of growth needed to meet the targets is higher than when China's economy was growing at 10 percent a year, and China's economy is growing more slowly now. Additionally, the tariffs on Chinese goods that remain in place after phase one are a further drag on the economy.