Trump Seen as Unlikely to Lift Russian Energy Sanctions, but Could Give ‘Symbolic’ Relief

Edward Fishman, who led sanctions work at the State Department during the Obama administration, noted that Trump has reportedly ordered U.S. agencies to draft sanctions relief options for Russia (see 2503030078). But Fishman said he’s “hopeful” that won’t result in the lifting of sweeping U.S. restrictions on Russian energy, partly because Trump doesn't want to hurt the American oil industry.

If Russian energy sanctions are lifted, U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil aren’t “going back and drilling in the Russian arctic,” he said, adding that those projects are “no longer profitable.” He also said the U.S. oil industry has seen sales surge as other countries restrict Russian oil imports, leading to more exports of U.S. liquified natural gas.

“We have taken advantage of Russian gas coming off the market, both pipeline gas to Europe and inhibiting projects like Arctic LNG 2,” Fishman said during an event this week hosted by the Center for a New American Security. “I don't think it makes sense for Trump to benefit Siberian oil fields over Texas oil fields, or Russian gas over American gas.”

Fishman said Trump “wants American energy dominance, and I think he'll be inhibited” from lifting Russian energy sanctions “because it won't be good for the American oil and gas sector.”

But Fishman, now a professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, also said “it's possible you get some symbolic sanctions relief.” And even though lifting some of the Russia sanctions would trigger a 30-day congressional review period, Fishman said it’s unclear if Congress would have the votes to veto the relief.

“That would require some Republicans to vote against it,” he said. “So it's not a great bet that that would happen.”

Fishman also said he doesn’t expect the use of sanctions, export controls and other economic statecraft tools to slow anytime soon. He noted that every administration since Obama has doubled the use of those tools (see 2503110036), “and I’m pretty certain that if we wind up looking back at this four years from now, we will see new records set.”

That’s partly because countries around the world are adjusting to a global economy marked by “fierce geopolitical competition,” and no nation feels “economically secure,” Fishman said. As a result, they are more frequently turning to trade tools.

“One way to view tariffs, sanctions, export controls, is that brick by brick, they’re a way that countries are building a new economic order, one where they feel less vulnerable to the chokepoints controlled by others,” Fishman said.

He specifically pointed to China, which in the last several years “has built an economic arsenal that looks quite a bit like our own.” Beijing has retaliated against U.S. tariffs in recent weeks by announcing new tariffs and export controls against the U.S. (see 2502040011). “Another reason you're going to see economic warfare continue to proliferate is it’s not just the United States now that wields these weapons,” Fishman said.

Fishman also shot down the idea that the U.S. can “realistically” isolate China economically, including by decoupling, saying that would be too damaging to the American economy.

“The war games I participated in that involve this, a lot of times they end with the U.S. cutting off all trade and finance with China,” Fishman said. “And I think sometimes politicians’ rhetoric becomes a little bit more hawkish than they might be willing to be in the actual scenario.”