US Could Reverse Some Russia Sanctions During Settlement Talks, Researcher Says

Michael Kimmage of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute, who previously worked on Russia-Ukraine issues at the State Department, said he doesn’t think any possible negotiations led by the Trump administration will “succeed quickly.” He noted that diplomacy around the war “is really, really complicated,” partly because so many other countries with major economies continue to back Ukraine both with military aid and sanctions against Moscow.

“The U.S. is one piece of that coalition, but certainly not the only one,” Kimmage said during an event last week hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Maybe a kind of diplomatic termination to the war is something to think of a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, and that speaks to the sheer complexity of all of the things that go into this war and all of the things that will go into its termination.”

Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow with the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, also said a potential settlement will take time, “at least a year.” She said she can envision “ourselves in a very similar situation next year,” but with a “way less active role of the United States in Ukraine than before and probably a stronger role of Europe.”

She also noted that settlement talks could continue over the next year even if the Kremlin doesn’t agree to a ceasefire, and the U.S. could reverse some sanctions in the meantime if the two countries are making progress. “I also would not be surprised to see, again, in light of the recent developments, some agreements or some sort of negotiations going on between the United States and Russia, and potentially even some sort of reset -- a partial sanctions lift -- as a result of this situation,” Snegovaya said.

She said the lifting of sanctions has been “consistently discussed” by the two sides, although Trump in January also threatened to impose more sanctions against Moscow if it didn’t move quickly to negotiate a deal to end the war (see 2501220074). The U.S. has issued one Russia-related sanctions announcement since Trump took office: the designation earlier this month of Zservers, a Russia-based internet infrastructure service provider, and two Russian nationals for supporting Russian ransomware attacks (see 2502110018).

Asked whether the Kremlin is feeling domestic pressure to negotiate a settlement and secure U.S. sanctions relief, Snegovaya said “going back to business as usual would be popular” among oligarchs and other Russian elites. But she also noted that “most” analysts and economists believe the Kremlin can continue the war for two more years without sanctions being lifted, and Russian society has been “more or less compliant” with the war effort.

“So there is no imminent pressure on the Kremlin that would push it towards the negotiation table,” Snegovaya said, even while acknowledging that sanctions have hurt the country’s economy.

“The Russian economy has lost a lot of the protection mechanisms that would have otherwise helped it in case of a big blow -- for example, an incident that would push the oil prices down for a while could be really detrimental for the Kremlin,” she said. “So it's not invincible, but it's also nowhere near a complete collapse.”

Other analysts suggested the Trump administration can only negotiate a successful end to the war by increasing sanctions against Moscow. “The only clear way to move [President Vladimir] Putin in the right direction is to demonstrate that he will pay an enormous price for continuing to pursue this savage war,” John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said during a think tank event last week. “That means, as Trump talked about himself, and his team has talked about, major additional economic pressure on Russia.”