China is unlikely to meet its purchase commitments under the phase one deal, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which could lead to China invoking a force majeure clause and further postponing the prospects of a phase two agreement, China trade experts said. “Given the COVID-19 crisis, the target set in the phase one deal will be very hard to achieve,” Xu Gao, chief economist at Bank of China International, said during a May 13 webinar hosted by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

The Directorate of Defense Trade Controls issued a series of frequently asked questions on May 11 to clarify an International Traffic in Arms Regulations exemption that authorizes exports and other activities made by or for a U.S. government agency.

Export Compliance Daily is providing readers with some of the top stories for May 4-8 in case you missed them.

The Commerce and State Department should improve export control guidance for universities, which sometimes struggle to comply with U.S. export regulations because of unclear guidance that is usually tailored toward industry, the Government Accountability Office said May 12. The GAO also said Defense Department officials should better familiarize themselves with export control regulations in order to not hamper university research efforts.

Amid rising U.S.-China trade tensions, China released a second round of U.S. goods exempt from retaliatory tariffs, according to an unofficial translation of a May 12 Finance Ministry notice. The announcement came one day after a Chinese state news agency said the country is considering invalidating the phase one deal, citing Chinese officials’ frustration with President Donald Trump’s attempt to blame China for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese direct investment in the U.S. last year fell to its lowest levels in a decade and will likely continue to drop this year, according to a May 11 report from the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the Rhodium Group. Investment dropped to $5 billion in 2019 from a decade-high of $45 billion in 2016 due to more investment reviews by the U.S., restrictions on outbound investment by Beijing, the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions between the two countries, the report said. The decreased investment may be part of a broader trend caused by the pandemic as industry grows concerned about the consequences of over-dependence on foreign supply chains, the report said.

The European Union will launch its new customs pre-arrival security program in March 2021, calling it a “complete overhaul” of its existing customs regime. The program, the Import Control System 2, will collect data on all EU imports before their arrival and will require “Economic Operators” to declare security data through an “Entry Summary Declaration,” according to a May 11 European Commission newsletter. Although the system launches next year, some operators may not have to begin filing those declarations until 2023 or 2024, the newsletter said. The effective date depends “on the type of services they provide in the international movement of goods,” the commission said.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is disinclined to offer an informed compliance period for most importers, “because most of the rules of origin have remained essentially the same” as what was in NAFTA, so CBP can honor the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement claims with the same information that backed NAFTA claims, according to Brenda Smith, executive assistant commissioner of CBP’s Office of Trade.

Plans to finalize a reorganization of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations have been put on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, said Mike Miller, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for defense trade. The reorganization -- which involves moving definitions and consolidating exemptions within the ITAR (see 1907120011) -- has been “de-emphasized as a priority,” Miller said during a May 8 conference call hosted by the Society for International Affairs. “In the current environment, with all the disruption and the difficulties everyone is facing, a rollout of that at this time would not be timely.”

The U.S. needs a clearer strategy for leading 5G and artificial intelligence standards-setting to counter China’s growing tech leadership, technology experts said. The Trump administration should define a strategy and work with allies to set global standards, the experts said, or risk forcing its companies out of global markets because of restrictions placed on China.