A Canadian government analysis of NAFTA's replacement -- known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement in that country -- estimates that it will increase Canadian GDP by just under 0.25% over five years. The estimate is based on comparing CUSMA to a withdrawal from NAFTA, not from the present trade deal.
The European Union's Committee on International Trade Chairman Bernd Lange, in a roundtable with trade reporters Feb. 27, said that he asked officials from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative if there's any truth to rumors that the U.S. will either pull out of the government procurement agreement at the World Trade Organization, or that it will seek to raise its bound tariffs, a process that would begin at the WTO. “I got confirmation from all stakeholders this will not happen,” said Lange, who was in Washington to talk with officials from USTR, Congress, unions and think tanks. But, he added, “sometimes decisions in the United States are taken quite quick,” so he can't be sure that answer will be true next week.
During a hearing that House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal, D-Mass., said was designed to test President Donald Trump's claim that the phase one agreement with China is a “tremendous win for the American people,” most of what was revealed was that Democrats are skeptical of the purchase promises and likelihood of success of further negotiations, and Republicans admire Trump's confrontation of China.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he doesn't expect the U.S. to negotiate over the tariffs it has put on European goods like Airbus planes, Scotch whiskey, French wine, and Spanish wine and olive oil until the World Trade Organization rules on Boeing subsidies. Currently, there are 10% tariffs on Airbus planes and 25% tariffs on the wine, liquor and food items; the aircraft tariff is set to climb to 15% on March 18. The Boeing ruling is not expected for several months.
A pro-free trade think tank in Canada published an analysis of the new NAFTA, known as CUSMA in Canada, and finds it lacking. “CUSMA has little traditional tariff liberalization, introducing only minor changes to market access compared to the NAFTA, and limited improvements in trade facilitation, while at the same time introducing a number of features that promise to be more restrictive of trade,” wrote the authors of the C.D. Howe Institute paper.
While a small deal could be announced during President Donald Trump's trip early next week to India, senior White House officials say that will be purchase announcements, not a full or partial restoration of India to the Generalized System of Preferences benefits program. While they declined to go into specifics on what the sticking points have been in talks on improving market access, they noted that the complaints of U.S. exporters are well known.
A bipartisan group of 19 senators, led by Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., are asking the U.S. trade representative to get a deal done with the United Kingdom before the U.K. reaches its agreement with the European Union. The letter, made public Feb. 18, says the U.K. “has the greatest freedom of action now,” and getting a comprehensive agreement before the EU agreement will give the U.S. “the best possible chance of earning new access to U.K. markets.” They urged that the deal not be limited to a few sectors, and that he follow Congress's fast track negotiating objective.
The Canadian Parliament is moving the successor to NAFTA along, so that a March ratification vote is still looking likely, news from Canada says. While the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will be reviewed by the agriculture, natural resources and industry/science/technology committees, not just the trade committee, the other committees only have until Feb. 25 for that review, a report from ipolitics said.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he doesn't think the Trump administration will ever levy an additional 25% tax on imported autos, even as President Donald Trump continues to mention that threat in an effort to get European negotiators to open up to American agriculture exports. Grassley, who was responding to a reporter's question on how to get the European Union to bend during a conference call Feb. 18, said he doesn't think the EU will negotiate much on ag.
Half the companies surveyed by the U.S.-China Business Council say that it's too soon to tell if the tariffs in the China trade war were worth it for the gains won at the negotiating table, even as 78 percent of respondents welcome the phase one deal. Companies see the phase one deal -- which takes effect Feb. 14 -- as something that will prevent more tariff hikes. Of those who are directly affected by the commitments in phase one -- 60 percent of the companies -- the purchase promises matter most, with 30 percent saying that's the most relevant plank. Protection of intellectual property was a close second, with 27 percent of companies saying that's most important.