Research Report Offers Methodology to Predict China's Future Export Controls
A new report from the National Bureau of Asian Research analyzes how Beijing may seek to use its export control authorities and how those moves will impact U.S. supply chains.
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The report said Beijing is likely to continue targeting exports of commodities over which the country maintains “significant supply chain advantages and which are critical to U.S. technology and national security strategies,” such as critical minerals used to produce semiconductors and batteries (see 2412030022, 2501020032 and 2307050018). The bureau said China’s recent export controls have all targeted goods “characterized” by a set of common traits:
- Chinese enterprises have dominant or near-monopoly positions in their supply chains for the goods
- the goods “are of high strategic or economic importance” to the U.S. and are “explicitly identified” in U.S. national security policy documents
- the goods are solely or primarily sourced globally from China
- the goods have alternate export markets outside the U.S.
“Use of the methodology identified in this report can provide guidance to U.S. and allied policymakers to anticipate [China's] reactions to new security and trade restrictions,” the report said. “Ideally, this could also provide the lead time necessary to explore alternative sources or approaches.”