Trump, Harris Offer Little to Entice Other Nations on Trade, Ex-US Official Says
The agendas of both major presidential candidates would provide few incentives for other countries to negotiate new trade agreements with the U.S., a former Commerce Department official said Oct. 31.
Former President Donald Trump believes other countries have taken advantage of the U.S. on trade for decades and that it’s now time for them to make concessions to the U.S., such as by buying more American-made products, said Bill Reinsch, who was undersecretary of commerce for export administration during the Clinton administration.
For Vice President Kamala Harris, the main trade accomplishment she can point to during the Biden administration is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, in which “you see a number of things that we’re asking them to do without reciprocation on our part,” said Reinsch, the Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Those Biden-Harris “asks” include “good government things" that are “not always easy for the other countries to undertake,” such as treating workers better, producing more sustainable economies and obeying anti-corruption and human rights rules, Reinsch asserted during a CSIS event.
“Both cases are the same in that they really involve us asking the other countries to do something without giving anything in return,” Reinsch said. “So I think at least for the next four years, that’s what you’re going to see. I don’t see a real effort to try to go back to a more conventional, reciprocal approach or even to go forward with a broad, multilateral approach that might involve more market access.”
While Harris has shown interest in renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which expires in 2025 (see 2407290042), Reinsch explained that much of the "rhetoric" is on how to use AGOA to make it easier for the U.S. to extract minerals in Africa.
“That is in our interest. It’s not necessarily in the interest of African nations simply to be extractive economies,” Reinsch asserted. “They want to refine the minerals, they want to manufacture the products that contain the minerals, they want to move up the value-added chain. Unless we are offering those kinds of alternatives … I'm not sure how far we’re going to get.”
AGOA renewal attempts also could be hindered by calls from the “left wing of the Democratic Party” to impose human rights requirements and other conditions on Africa, which are not only “patronizing” but could be financially and politically difficult for the African countries to implement, Reinsch added.