Mexico Analyst Predicts USMCA Will Be Renewed
The strong differences in tariff and immigration policies whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election made it difficult for a think tank's economic outlook, but Alejandro Werner, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that Mexico will have a slow-down in foreign investment over the next couple of years because of "the uncertainty associated with the continuation of the USMCA regardless of who wins the election."
Sign up for a free preview to unlock the rest of this article
Export Compliance Daily combines U.S. export control news, foreign border import regulation and policy developments into a single daily information service that reliably informs its trade professional readers about important current issues affecting their operations.
Werner, who used to be director of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere Department and is a former Mexico Finance Ministry official, said he expects the 2026 review will be successful, and it will be renewed. (If that happens, it will be in effect for 16 years until the next review).
For that to happen, however, Werner said, Mexico would have to revise its trade and investment policies with regard to China. That would move Mexico closer to a customs union with the U.S., at least where China is concerned.
"It makes all the sense in the world [for Mexico] to comply with whatever the U.S. wants to keep the USMCA," he said, and he said he thinks the manufacturing integration between the U.S. and Mexico also provides incentives for the U.S. to continue the trade deal.
"These negotiations will be tougher for Mexico if the U.S. has an economic slow-down and the unemployment rate goes up," he added.