AT&T/Time Warner Seen Facing Plenty of Opposition, Many on Sidelines
AT&T's proposed buy of Time Warner could get opposition from parties ranging from programmers and public interest groups to Dish Network, but support could be harder to come by as many may remain neutral and not get involved with lobbying regulators and policymakers, cable industry experts told us. Industry groups like NCTA and USTelecom likely won't get involved, since organizations that have multiple interests might have a tough time coming to a unified stance, some said, though not everyone agreed. An NCTA spokeswoman said it typically doesn't comment on deals and didn't during Comcast/NBCUniversal, Charter/Time Warner Cable/Bright House Networks and the foiled Comcast/TWC. USTelecom didn't comment Thursday. Meanwhile, the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmed Thursday that its Antitrust Subcommittee plans an AT&T/Time Warner oversight hearing Dec. 7 with the CEOs of both companies, as expected (see 1610260070).
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Dish likely will be a key opponent, and it could be joined by Cogent and Netflix, depending on whether AT&T will commit to forego interconnection fees, one lawyer with cable clients and deal experience told us. Multiple other cable experts and insiders named Dish as a likely opponent, and the company was very active in opposing Charter/TWC/BHN. Public interest groups will all oppose, while content providers likely will stay neutral except some smaller independent programmers, the lawyer said. Dish, Cogent and Netflix didn't comment. Both 21st Century Fox and Disney (see 1610250053) said the deal should receive high levels of regulatory scrutiny.
A key question will be what stance, if any, the other major wireless carriers take, especially as they increasingly move into providing video, a cable industry lawyer said. They could raise concerns about content access or ways AT&T could favor its own wireless products using its TW content, the lawyer said. Online video distributors might weigh in with concerns about being denied access to TW content in order to favor AT&T's DirecTV Now over-the-top (OTT) service. AT&T executives said OTT plans were a major driver of the TW deal (see 1610240011).
The deal will see "the usual chorus of critics coming out against the merger with knee-jerk responses," emailed Adonis Hoffman, chairman of Business in the Public Interest, which doesn't represent the combining companies. "That includes so-called consumer groups, legacy civil rights organizations (depending on the dollars), think tanks, competitors, independent content creators, and most liberal Democrats who have never met a merger they liked." Meanwhile, backing -- or at least staying neutral on -- the deal will be pro-business and trade organizations, companies doing business with AT&T and TW, moderate politicians, "contrarians and a surprising number of Wall Street analysts," he said. "These lineups could change, but not fundamentally, by how much attention ATT pays to the points of opposition going into the deal, and how willing it is to address those points in advance." Hoffman also said he expects NCTA and USTelecom ultimately to weigh in for the deal.
AT&T likely is preparing voluntary behavioral conditions like those in Comcast/NBCU, such as guaranteeing TW content is available on nondiscriminatory terms and conditions, to head off distributor opposition, said another lawyer with cable clients and deal experience. In anticipation of independent programmer opposition, AT&T also might be preparing conditions about program carriage and program access, setting aside a certain amount of capacity for indie programming, the lawyer said. The FCC also could appoint a compliance monitor like it did in Charter/TWC, the lawyer said; it's not clear if the FCC would play role in overseeing the deal (see 1610260022).
One indie programmer supported the deal. In a statement Thursday, RFD-TV CEO Patrick Gottsch said AT&T has kept its pledge made with its DirecTV acquisition "to expand services in support of rural America." He said some pay-TV operators "recently have turned their backs on rural America and senior citizens by actually removing popular programming, [but] AT&T has not. Based on AT&T’s track record, RFD-TV firmly believes that the AT&T-Time Warner transaction will prove to be positive for rural America and senior citizens."
The Senate hearing will be at 10 a.m. in 226 Dirksen, hours earlier than the 2 p.m. hearing time a GOP aide initially expected. “The hearing will examine the impact of the proposed transaction on consumers, including the implications for competition and innovation in the creation and distribution of video content,” the committee said. "When the second biggest paid TV company proposes to merge with a premier content provider for $85 billion, yes, there are a lot of questions to ask," ranking member Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said in a statement. "This hearing will give the public an opportunity to see the witnesses answer questions under oath before our subcommittee.”