Broadcaster concerns about Aereo are “overdone,” said Guggenheim...
Broadcaster concerns about Aereo are “overdone,” said Guggenheim analyst Paul Gallant in an email to investors Tuesday. Despite the case being taken up by the Supreme Court, Aereo still faces “hurdles,” Gallant said. The high court decision is a “coin…
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flip” that could come out in broadcasters’ favor, and if the court sides with Aereo, broadcasters would have “home court advantage” in trying to have Congress pass a bill limiting Aereo’s disruption, Gallant said. “Broadcasters have been dealing with Congress for decades and have TV stations covering virtually every congressional district,” said Gallant. “We wonder how willing cable would be to adopt Aereo if that strategy was under constant threat of Congress declaring that strategy illegal?” A Supreme Court decision may not ultimately get Aereo out of legal danger, Gallant said. Broadcasters could also attack Aereo by saying the service violates retrans law, said Gallant. “Broadcasters don’t need to ultimately win this additional legal argument, they just need to make the argument credibly so that cable operators will think very carefully before adopting Aereo (given the potential damages if cable guesses wrong).” Even if cable tried to adopt Aereo’s system, it may not be easy, Gallant said. “For cable to use Aereo as a broadcast replacement, it would probably need to purchase and roll out many new set top boxes that could deliver Aereo’s IP-based signals to TV sets somewhere near as seamlessly as pay TV service,” Gallant said. “Not cheap or quick."